Estimated impact of medically tailored meals on health care use and expenditures in 50 US states

Medically tailored meals (MTMs) can reduce health care use among high-risk patients with diet-related conditions. However, the potential impact of providing coverage for MTMs across fifty US states remains unknown. Using a population-based, open-cohort simulation model, we estimated state-specific one-year and five-year changes in annual hospitalizations, health care spending, and cost-effectiveness of MTMs for patients with diet-related diseases and limitations in activities of daily living, covered by Medicaid, Medicare, or private insurance. Assuming full uptake among eligible people, MTMs were net cost saving in the first year in forty-nine states, with the largest savings seen in Connecticut ($6,299 per patient). The exception was Alabama, where MTMs were cost-neutral. The number of treated patients needed to avert one hospitalization ranged from 2.3 (Maryland) to 6.9 (Colorado). These findings can inform state-level policy makers and health plans considering MTM coverage through state-specific strategies.